Šta je novo?

Epidemija CoViD-19

Da li ćete se vakcinisati i kojom vakcinom?

  • Da - Sinopharm

    Glasovi: 32 10,1%
  • Da - Sputnik V

    Glasovi: 25 7,9%
  • Da - Pfizer-BioNTech

    Glasovi: 81 25,6%
  • Da - bilo kojom dostupnom vakcinom

    Glasovi: 49 15,5%
  • Da - AstraZeneca

    Glasovi: 23 7,3%
  • Da - Moderna

    Glasovi: 2 0,6%
  • Nisam siguran sačekaću još

    Glasovi: 44 13,9%
  • Ne želim da se vakcinišem

    Glasovi: 60 19,0%

  • Ukupno glasača
    316
Izgleda da imamo novi talas, delta+ soj.

У Словенији је у последња 24 сата уз смањен број тестирања потврђено 1.257 новозаражених корона вирусом, а још десет пацијената је преминуло, док посебно забрињава висока стопа позитивних тестова.

Од 2.632 теста потврђено је 1.257 новозаражених, што значи да је позитивних тестова било 47 одсто, скоро сваки други, потврдио је данас Национални институт за јавно здравље (НИЈЗ), преноси Хина.
 
Dao sam sebi za pravo da docrtam budućnost ovog talasa, bar kako ga ja vidim do NG:
Capture.JPG
 
Zasto se ponasanje ovog talasa razlikuje od prethodnih?
Zasto nema maksimuma nego plato?
 
Kada se objavljuju podaci RZS o broju svih umrlih u Srbiji za prethodnu godinu? Kad je objavljeno ove godine za 2020? Pocetkom januara, krajem januara, u februaru...?
 
Обично избаце у току текуће године од јануара до претходног месеца (нисам сад сигуран који дан током њега)

Нпр. у августу за период јануар - јул

Имаш овде https://www.stat.gov.rs/oblasti/stanovnistvo/, извештај је Живорођени и умрли
 
Sinoć Kon bio na N1 kod Nataše Miljković.

Ništa novo nije rečeno. Već smo pominjali kako nije on nimalo glup ili šta već. Nije mu prvi put da je rekao da je on lično insistirao da sve uđe u zapisnik što je medicinski deo tražio.

Znam da mnogi misle da bi ostavkom medicinski deo pokazao nešto, ali ja zaista mislim da nam je ovako korisniji. Propagadna SNS mašinerija je kolektivnu ostavku okrenula nekako na svoju vodenicu, a poltronima koji bi ušli u Krizni štab umesto njega, mislim da svi mislimo isto.

Rekao je da Vesić nije član Kriznog štaba (mada skoro da mogu da se zakunem da sam negde pročitao da je ušao u isti).

Meni lično smeta malo taj blago podanički odnos prema Vučiću i Brnabićki, ali tako je to u vojsci - stroga hijerarhija. Mada je više puta da rekao da ne sluša svog komandanta uvek i da priča ono što su me rekli da ne priča.
 
Pa mora opravdati medalje i stanove :)

Inače, antivaxeri su krivi za sve, apsolutno je nebitno vakcinisati sve koje žele

https://www.b92.net/info/vesti/index.ph ... id=2048378

Nemačka ima više vakcina nego što joj je potrebno i hoće da ih donira siromašnijim zemljama. Ali proizvođači vakcina se tome protive - i traže pare.

https://twitter.com/marcfriedrich7/stat ... _3Uuw&s=09

Profit je nebitan.

Naleteh i na ovaj klip, a najzanimljivija mi je zastava koja se viori u krupnom planu :D

https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/statu ... 39394?s=20

Koliko vidimo situacija sa zaraženima se pogoršava i u drugim zemljama. Grčka udarila na ath, slovenija, nemačka, hrvatska... uskoro će i oni na ath.
 
Koliko sam nevoljno slušao medije ovih dana, primetio sam da se svako frlja sa brojem vakcnisanih, te ih ima 3 miliona, te 55%, te 45%... verovatno neko računa samo punoletne, neko celokupno stanovništvo i td...
 
Srbija je upravo uspela da se podigne za po još jedan procenat, tako da je sada situacija po procentu vakcinisane populacije (1. 2. 3. doza):

Srbija..... 47 44 14
Hrvatska..47 44 00
*Kosovo...47 41 00

Veliko je pitanje, koliki je procenat lažnih potvrda o vakcinaciji. Nekako mi se čini da smo (kao i braća Rusi), tu u samom svetskom vrhu.
Jako bih voleo da vidim kvalitetno istraživanje (na reprezentativnom uzorku) celokupne populacije, gde bi uz pomoć seroloških analiza i markera, utvrdili precizne procente obolelih, vakcinisanih, "vakcinisanih", nevakcinisanih, i sve kombinacije navedenih statusa.
 
Tok epidemije

Postigli smo nekoliko novih rekorda.

I po zvaničnim podacima smo prešli okruglu cifru od 10.000 mrtvih.

Oktobar je po zvaničnim podacima broja mrtvih najgori mesec do sada. Samo je u oktobru preminula 1.721 osoba. U decembru 2020. ih je bilo 1607.

Da bi se dobili stvarni brojevi direktnih žrtava korone to treba pomnožiti sa bar tri, i onda još toliko koliki je zvanični broj da bi obuhvatile ostale žrtve (ili je faktor množenja ovih prvih veći od tri, a ovih drugih manji od jedan, videćemo, ali to ne menja ukupan broj), dakle ima ukupno četri puta više žrtava.

Grafik izgleda ovako ako se odnosi između razmera prikazivanja parametara optimizuju za prethodni, 4. talas iz marta 2021.

2021.11.02 Tok epidemije 1.jpg

Vidimo da se broj zaraženih uporno održava na sličnom nivou kao u kratkom maksimumu najvećeg talasa prošle godine, međutim broj umrlih je veći nego što je ikada bio. Takođe, odnos broja umrlih i zaraženih (smrtnost) je veći nego što je ikada bio. Broj ulaza na respirator i broj hospitalizacija su po apsolutnim iznosima slični kao i ranije, ali je odnos prema broju zaraženih manji. Što se tiče broja zaraženih imamo sasvim nove, male talase, ali sada po vrhu velikog talasa koji se održava i ne smanjuje. Pri čemu je još uvek relativno toplo i pristojno vreme za boravak napolju, pa faktor reprodukcije virusa tek treba bitno da poraste da bi odslikao zimske navike i ponašanja.

Ako se odnosi između razmera prikazivanja parametara optimizuju za tekući talas, to izgleda ovako. Dobili smo jasno izraženi plato koji se uporno odražava.

2021.11.02 Tok epidemije 2.jpg

Ažurirana verzija mog ranijeg grafika koji daje tempo porasta i trenutno stanje stvarnog broja umrlih (tj viška smrti), ako se pretpostavi da je u ovom mesecu ostao isti faktor množenja kojim se iz zvaničnog broja umrlih dobija višak smrti. I tu se približavamo novom rekordu: 40.000 mrtvih! Današnji broj je 39.403.

2021.11.02 Tok epidemije 3.jpg
 
U oktobru od korone umrla 1.721 osoba, prijava protiv premijerke i ministra
...
Zato su DS i Skupština Slobodne Srbije podneli krivičnu prijavu protiv premijerke i ministra zdravlja za nepostupanje po zdravstvenim propisima, za teško delo protiv zdravlja ljudi i zloupotrebu službenog položaja.

„Ovo je vlada koja je uspela da u mirnodopskim uslovima ubije, odnosno da umre više ljudi nego za vreme nekih drugih vlada u ratnim uslovima… Vlada Ane Brnabić, odnosno preciznije Vlada Aleksandra Vučića je donela politički odluku da našim životima plaća svoj opstanak na vlasti“, kaže Dragana Rakić, zamenica predsednika DS.

„Šta je reakcija vlasti na sav ovaj pomor zaista enormnih razmera – krivotvorenje podataka. I to je toliko bezobrazno, neukusno, drastično“, navodi epidemiolog Zoran Radovanović.

Lekari, koji su od početka na prvoj liniji odbrane života, poručuju da se realna epidemiološka slika dobija kada se zvanični brojevi uvećaju nekoliko puta.

„To što ima preko sedam i po hiljada novoobolelih, pa to pomnožite sa njamanje tri i po, kolika je realna brojka, to je toliko opteretilo zdravstveni sistem, da u ovom trenutku, zbog kovida, umiru i nekovid pacijenti“, ističe anesteziolog dr Rade Panić.

„Nemamo dovoljan broj anesteziologa. Svi su angažovani u borbi za život svakog našeg pacijenta. Vlast nas je pustila niz vodu“, dodaje Tatjana Vešović iz Sindikata lekara i farmaceuta Srbije.

Lekari upozoravaju da su brojevi toliko krivotvoreni da je verovatnoća da se u septembru slože kako su zvanično objavljivani i da su odraz realne epidemiološke slike – jedan prema milion miliona. Statističarima će trebati još malo vremena da izračunaju šta kaže teorija verovatnoće za najsmrtonosniji mesec koji je iza nas.

https://rs.n1info.com/vesti/u-oktobru-o ... -ministra/
 
Zelena linija (broj ulaz au bolnice) deluje neprirodno.
 
[url=http://beobuild.rs/forum/viewtopic.php?p=895679#p895679:1kmyq052 je napisao(la):
MC_ » 02 Nov 2021 10:07 pm[/url]":1kmyq052]Zelena linija (broj ulaz au bolnice) deluje neprirodno.
Kad se samo taj deo uveća, izgleda ovako.

2021.11.02 Tok epidemije 4.jpg
 
Tok vakcinisanja.

Tempo vakcinisanja se nije povećao, nego smanjio. Prelomna tačka je 28.10.2021.

2021.11.03. Tok vakcinacije 1.jpg

2021.11.03. Tok vakcinacije 2.jpg

Pošto su ove linije zaista glatke, bez iole većih slučajnih varjacija, moram da napomenem da podaci o vakcinisanima nisu filtrirani ni na koji način, nego sirovi, onakvi kakvi su objavljeni.
 
Ирска је данас пријавила највише случајева ковида-19 од рекордног броја достигнутог у јануару, пошто се број нових инфекција повећава упркос чињеници да је готово 90 одсто одраслог становништва вакцинисано. Тим за ванредне ситуације Националног јавног здравља је у саопштењу пријавио 3.726 нових случајева, што је повећање од 70 одсто у односу на исти дан прошле недеље, преноси Ројтерс.

Izgleda da cemo sa virusom da zivimo jos dugo.
 
Zuma, zašto ne koristiš zvanične podatke? Smanjuješ ih za 4%. Zbog vakcinisanja stranaca?
 
https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n2635

British Medical Journal Investigation

Covid-19: Researcher blows the whistle on data integrity issues in Pfizer’s vaccine trial
BMJ Investigation
Covid-19: Researcher blows the whistle on data integrity issues in Pfizer’s vaccine trial
BMJ 2021; 375 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n2635 (Published 02 November 2021)

Paul D Thacker, investigative journalist

In autumn 2020 Pfizer’s chairman and chief executive, Albert Bourla, released an open letter to the billions of people around the world who were investing their hopes in a safe and effective covid-19 vaccine to end the pandemic. “As I’ve said before, we are operating at the speed of science,” Bourla wrote, explaining to the public when they could expect a Pfizer vaccine to be authorised in the United States.

But, for researchers who were testing Pfizer’s vaccine at several sites in Texas during that autumn, speed may have come at the cost of data integrity and patient safety. A regional director who was employed at the research organisation Ventavia Research Group has told The BMJ that the company falsified data, unblinded patients, employed inadequately trained vaccinators, and was slow to follow up on adverse events reported in Pfizer’s pivotal phase III trial. Staff who conducted quality control checks were overwhelmed by the volume of problems they were finding. After repeatedly notifying Ventavia of these problems, the regional director, Brook Jackson, emailed a complaint to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Ventavia fired her later the same day. Jackson has provided The BMJ with dozens of internal company documents, photos, audio recordings, and emails.

Poor laboratory management
On its website Ventavia calls itself the largest privately owned clinical research company in Texas and lists many awards it has won for its contract work.2 But Jackson has told The BMJ that, during the two weeks she was employed at Ventavia in September 2020, she repeatedly informed her superiors of poor laboratory management, patient safety concerns, and data integrity issues. Jackson was a trained clinical trial auditor who previously held a director of operations position and came to Ventavia with more than 15 years’ experience in clinical research coordination and management. Exasperated that Ventavia was not dealing with the problems, Jackson documented several matters late one night, taking photos on her mobile phone. One photo, provided to The BMJ, showed needles discarded in a plastic biohazard bag instead of a sharps container box. Another showed vaccine packaging materials with trial participants’ identification numbers written on them left out in the open, potentially unblinding participants. Ventavia executives later questioned Jackson for taking the photos.

Early and inadvertent unblinding may have occurred on a far wider scale. According to the trial’s design, unblinded staff were responsible for preparing and administering the study drug (Pfizer’s vaccine or a placebo). This was to be done to preserve the blinding of trial participants and all other site staff, including the principal investigator. However, at Ventavia, Jackson told The BMJ that drug assignment confirmation printouts were being left in participants’ charts, accessible to blinded personnel. As a corrective action taken in September, two months into trial recruitment and with around 1000 participants already enrolled, quality assurance checklists were updated with instructions for staff to remove drug assignments from charts.

In a recording of a meeting in late September2020 between Jackson and two directors a Ventavia executive can be heard explaining that the company wasn’t able to quantify the types and number of errors they were finding when examining the trial paperwork for quality control. “In my mind, it’s something new every day,” a Ventavia executive says. “We know that it’s significant.”

Ventavia was not keeping up with data entry queries, shows an email sent by ICON, the contract research organisation with which Pfizer partnered on the trial. ICON reminded Ventavia in a September 2020 email: “The expectation for this study is that all queries are addressed within 24hrs.” ICON then highlighted over 100 outstanding queries older than three days in yellow. Examples included two individuals for which “Subject has reported with Severe symptoms/reactions … Per protocol, subjects experiencing Grade 3 local reactions should be contacted. Please confirm if an UNPLANNED CONTACT was made and update the corresponding form as appropriate.” According to the trial protocol a telephone contact should have occurred “to ascertain further details and determine whether a site visit is clinically indicated.”

Worries over FDA inspection
Documents show that problems had been going on for weeks. In a list of “action items” circulated among Ventavia leaders in early August 2020, shortly after the trial began and before Jackson’s hiring, a Ventavia executive identified three site staff members with whom to “Go over e-diary issue/falsifying data, etc.” One of them was “verbally counseled for changing data and not noting late entry,” a note indicates.

At several points during the late September meeting Jackson and the Ventavia executives discussed the possibility of the FDA showing up for an inspection (box 1). “We’re going to get some kind of letter of information at least, when the FDA gets here . . . know it,” an executive stated.

Box 1
A history of lax oversight
When it comes to the FDA and clinical trials, Elizabeth Woeckner, president of Citizens for Responsible Care and Research Incorporated (CIRCARE),3 says the agency’s oversight capacity is severely under-resourced. If the FDA receives a complaint about a clinical trial, she says the agency rarely has the staff available to show up and inspect. And sometimes oversight occurs too late.

In one example CIRCARE and the US consumer advocacy organisation Public Citizen, along with dozens of public health experts, filed a detailed complaint in July 2018 with the FDA about a clinical trial that failed to comply with regulations for the protection of human participants.4 Nine months later, in April 2019, an FDA investigator inspected the clinical site. In May this year the FDA sent the triallist a warning letter that substantiated many of the claims in the complaints. It said, “t appears that you did not adhere to the applicable statutory requirements and FDA regulations governing the conduct of clinical investigations and the protection of human subjects.”5

“There’s just a complete lack of oversight of contract research organisations and independent clinical research facilities,” says Jill Fisher, professor of social medicine at the University of North Carolina School of Medicine and author of Medical Research for Hire: The Political Economy of Pharmaceutical Clinical Trials.

Ventavia and the FDA
A former Ventavia employee told The BMJ that the company was nervous and expecting a federal audit of its Pfizer vaccine trial.

“People working in clinical research are terrified of FDA audits,” Jill Fisher told The BMJ, but added that the agency rarely does anything other than inspect paperwork, usually months after a trial has ended. “I don’t know why they’re so afraid of them,” she said. But she said she was surprised that the agency failed to inspect Ventavia after an employee had filed a complaint. “You would think if there’s a specific and credible complaint that they would have to investigate that,” Fisher said.

In 2007 the Department of Health and Human Services’ Office of the Inspector General released a report on FDA’s oversight of clinical trials conducted between 2000 and 2005. The report found that the FDA inspected only 1% of clinical trial sites.6 Inspections carried out by the FDA’s vaccines and biologics branch have been decreasing in recent years, with just 50 conducted in the 2020 fiscal year.
end of box1

The next morning, 25 September 2020, Jackson called the FDA to warn about unsound practices in Pfizer’s clinical trial at Ventavia. She then reported her concerns in an email to the agency. In the afternoon Ventavia fired Jackson—deemed “not a good fit,” according to her separation letter.

Jackson told The BMJ it was the first time she had been fired in her 20 year career in research.

Concerns raised
In her 25 September email to the FDA Jackson wrote that Ventavia had enrolled more than 1000 participants at three sites. The full trial (registered under NCT04368728) enrolled around 44 000 participants across 153 sites that included numerous commercial companies and academic centres. She then listed a dozen concerns she had witnessed, including:

>Participants placed in a hallway after injection and not being monitored by clinical staff
>Lack of timely follow-up of patients who experienced adverse events
>Protocol deviations not being reported
>Vaccines not being stored at proper temperatures
>Mislabelled laboratory specimens, and
Targeting of Ventavia staff for reporting these types of problems.

Within hours Jackson received an email from the FDA thanking her for her concerns and notifying her that the FDA could not comment on any investigation that might result. A few days later Jackson received a call from an FDA inspector to discuss her report but was told that no further information could be provided. She heard nothing further in relation to her report.

In Pfizer’s briefing document submitted to an FDA advisory committee meeting held on 10 December 2020 to discuss Pfizer’s application for emergency use authorisation of its covid-19 vaccine, the company made no mention of problems at the Ventavia site. The next day the FDA issued the authorisation of the vaccine.8

In August this year, after the full approval of Pfizer’s vaccine, the FDA published a summary of its inspections of the company’s pivotal trial. Nine of the trial’s 153 sites were inspected. Ventavia’s sites were not listed among the nine, and no inspections of sites where adults were recruited took place in the eight months after the December 2020 emergency authorisation. The FDA’s inspection officer noted: “The data integrity and verification portion of the BIMO [bioresearch monitoring] inspections were limited because the study was ongoing, and the data required for verification and comparison were not yet available to the IND [investigational new drug].”

Other employees’ accounts
In recent months Jackson has reconnected with several former Ventavia employees who all left or were fired from the company. One of them was one of the officials who had taken part in the late September meeting. In a text message sent in June the former official apologised, saying that “everything that you complained about was spot on.”

Two former Ventavia employees spoke to The BMJ anonymously for fear of reprisal and loss of job prospects in the tightly knit research community. Both confirmed broad aspects of Jackson’s complaint. One said that she had worked on over four dozen clinical trials in her career, including many large trials, but had never experienced such a “helter skelter” work environment as with Ventavia on Pfizer’s trial.

“I’ve never had to do what they were asking me to do, ever,” she told The BMJ. “It just seemed like something a little different from normal—the things that were allowed and expected.”

She added that during her time at Ventavia the company expected a federal audit but that this never came.

After Jackson left the company problems persisted at Ventavia, this employee said. In several cases Ventavia lacked enough employees to swab all trial participants who reported covid-like symptoms, to test for infection. Laboratory confirmed symptomatic covid-19 was the trial’s primary endpoint, the employee noted. (An FDA review memorandum released in August this year states that across the full trial swabs were not taken from 477 people with suspected cases of symptomatic covid-19.)

“I don’t think it was good clean data,” the employee said of the data Ventavia generated for the Pfizer trial. “It’s a crazy mess.”

A second employee also described an environment at Ventavia unlike any she had experienced in her 20 years doing research. She told The BMJ that, shortly after Ventavia fired Jackson, Pfizer was notified of problems at Ventavia with the vaccine trial and that an audit took place.

Since Jackson reported problems with Ventavia to the FDA in September 2020, Pfizer has hired Ventavia as a research subcontractor on four other vaccine clinical trials (covid-19 vaccine in children and young adults, pregnant women, and a booster dose, as well an RSV vaccine trial; NCT04816643, NCT04754594, NCT04955626, NCT05035212). The advisory committee for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is set to discuss the covid-19 paediatric vaccine trial on 2 November.
 
[url=http://beobuild.rs/forum/viewtopic.php?p=895878#p895878:2po7hixp je napisao(la):
GOJE » 03 Nov 2021 05:38 pm[/url]":2po7hixp]Zuma, zašto ne koristiš zvanične podatke? Smanjuješ ih za 4%. Zbog vakcinisanja stranaca?
Nisam siguran na koji zvanični podatak misliš. Ovo na grafiku je takođe jedan od zvaničnih podataka sa sajta https://vakcinacija.gov.rs/ . U pravu si da ne uzimam u obzir strance pošto je smisao vakcinisanja stvaranje imuniteta u populaciji. Stranac koji se kod nas vakciniše taj svoj imunitet odnese sa sobom kad napusti zemlju, pa sabiranje koje bi u obzir uzelo i njih ne bi imalo smisla budući da ne predstavlja nešto što kod nas i dalje postoji.

Ako misliš na onaj procenat vakcinisanih koji se stalno vrti u izjavama zvaničnika, oni računaju udeo vakcinisanih samo od punoletnih osoba (da bi broj izgledao veći). Što takođe nema smisla, jer i mladi prenose virus, i to čak i više nego stari, a mogu i da se razbole, pa taj procenat nije realna slika postignutog udela "vakcinalne" zaštite. Mora da se računa procenat vakcinisanih u odnosu na celu populaciju, kao što se to radi na zapadu.

Na mom grafiku se zato vidi procenat vakcinisanih državljana Srbije u odnosu na ukupan broj svih. Pri tome sam uzeo poslednju zvaničnu procenu stanovništva na kraju 2020., koja iznosi 6.900.000.
 
Pa eto, po tim podacima procenti iznose 46, 44 i 14, prema ukupno datim vakcinama, ili 43, 41, 14 udela naših državljana. Kod tebe je 42, 40 i 10!?!
 
Za tacne procente veoma je vazno znati tacan broj stanovnika zemlje. Mislim da ga ne znamo
 
Vrh