Šta je novo?

Epidemija CoViD-19

Da li ćete se vakcinisati i kojom vakcinom?

  • Da - Sinopharm

    Glasovi: 32 10,1%
  • Da - Sputnik V

    Glasovi: 25 7,9%
  • Da - Pfizer-BioNTech

    Glasovi: 81 25,6%
  • Da - bilo kojom dostupnom vakcinom

    Glasovi: 49 15,5%
  • Da - AstraZeneca

    Glasovi: 23 7,3%
  • Da - Moderna

    Glasovi: 2 0,6%
  • Nisam siguran sačekaću još

    Glasovi: 44 13,9%
  • Ne želim da se vakcinišem

    Glasovi: 60 19,0%

  • Ukupno glasača
    316
[url=http://beobuild.rs/forum/viewtopic.php?p=865180#p865180:33nruade je napisao(la):
Zuma » 17 Jul 2021 03:42 pm[/url]":33nruade]Pošto je u svakom talasu ukupan broj zaraženih drastično manji od čitave populacije, svi mali procenti vakcinacije potencijalno ne moraju imati puno značaja jer se onda virus prosto širi među ostalima, a njih I DALJE IMA JAKO PUNO. Pa nema razloga da samo zbog toga što imamo NEKI procenat vakcinisanih, u novom talasu bude išta manje mrtvih i hospitalizovanih. To bi se naravno moglo desiti zbog asimetrične vakcinacije starih i mladih, gde je osetljiviji deo populacije više zaštićen, ali to uopšte ne mora da bude sigurna posledica iz gore opisanih razloga.
Palo mi je na pamet da bi ovo možda bilo lakše razumeti na kranje uprošćenom brojnom primeru.

Kada epidemijski talas prestaje, ili bolje reći kada dostigle maksimum i počne da opada? Onda kad se broj zaraženih toliko poveća da se dovoljno ljudi zaista zabrine i promeni ponašanje, a istovremeno se dovoljno zabrine i vlada, pa uvede dovoljno stroge mere koje u nekom trenutku počne zaista da kontroliše i ozbiljno sprovodi. Recimo da se to dešava kad se u nekom talasu zarazi 1% stanovništva. Takođe recimo da postoji neka zamišljna država sa 1000 ljudi, a da je broj mrtvih 1/10 zaraženih. Takođe zanemarimo protok vremena, tj posmatramo situaciju na kraju, pa recimo da se svo zaražavanje i umiranje dešava trenutno.

Slučaj kad niko nije vakcinisan:
Na 1000 državljana maksimum talasa se dešava kad se zarazi 1% svih (dakle 10), a umre 0,1% (dakle 1).
Konačno stanje u maksimumu: 990 ne-imunih živo i zdravo, 9 zaraženih i 1 mrtav.

Slučaj kada je pola stanovništva vakcinisano, dakle 500.
Sada se virus širi samo među preostalih 500.
Na 1000 državljana maksimum talasa se dešava kad se zarazi 1% svih (dakle 10), a umre 0,1% (dakle 1).
Konačno stanje u maksimumu: 500 vaksinisanih, 490 ne-imunih živo i zdravo, 9 zaraženih i 1 mrtav.

Konačni rezultat: Kad su u pitanju posledice kao što je broj bolesnih i mrtvih, sve je isto, tj u ovoj aproksimacije je nebitno koliko ima vakcinisanih. Zaraženih i umrlih će biti isti broj u oba slučaja.

U realnosti je naravno bitno složenije, pa ovo ne važi kad je procenat vakcinisnih dovoljno veliki, tj kad se približi granici u kojoj R faktor reprodukcije virusa teži jedinici (što je bivša granica "kolektivnog imuniteta"). Međutim u zemljama gde procenat vakcinisanih nije dovoljno veliki ova "prva aproksimacija" daje dovoljno dobar osećaj zašto posledeice talasa ostaju vrlo slične. Tj sve dok osetljivih ljudi još uvek ima puno, virus se širi kroz njih, pa je u početku, i ako zamerimo druge gore opisane efekte, sve slično kao da ostali i nisu vakcinisani.
 
[url=http://beobuild.rs/forum/viewtopic.php?p=865174#p865174:13gtos0l je napisao(la):
chiko » Sub Jul 17, 2021 4:23 pm[/url]":13gtos0l]Znaci spisak zemalja koje ne *ebu koronu:
VB
Amerika
Portugal
Malta

Jel to to, ili da zatvaramo spisak ?

Srbija :D dodavacemo polako
 
Ok, onda ide deal...

Ako ove zemlje (bez Srbije) ne uvedu mere i prilikom najvecih talasa u NAREDNIH GODINU DANA, evo javno cu priznati da ste experti.
Ako pak uvedu, moracu javno da vas isprozivam i sasvim legitimno dodam titulu "experta".

Deal ?
 
Ovo je duhovito i tačno zapažanje:

[url=http://beobuild.rs/forum/viewtopic.php?p=865172#p865172:16lqsyxu je napisao(la):
DanMrmota » 17 Jul 2021 03:19 pm[/url]":16lqsyxu]
Lep niz tvitova:
Duži niz o cirkusu u kojem živimo.
...
„Ovo je vijek estetike. Kroz istoriju su postojala doba razuma i doba spektakla i jako važno je znati u kojem si trenutno dobu. Naša Amerika, naš internet, nije drevna Atina - ona je Rim. A tvoj problem je što misliš da si na forumu, kad si u stvarnosti zapravo u cirkusu."

N.Wynn
Naravno, i ceo ostali niz twitova o "evolutivnoj prednosti" na društvenim mrežama emotivnog i spektakularnog (i lakog i kratkog) sadržaja nad razumskim.
 
[url=http://beobuild.rs/forum/viewtopic.php?p=865192#p865192:324r6re1 je napisao(la):
chiko » Sub Jul 17, 2021 6:38 pm[/url]":324r6re1]Ok, onda ide deal...

Ako ove zemlje (bez Srbije) ne uvedu mere i prilikom najvecih talasa u NAREDNIH GODINU DANA, evo javno cu priznati da ste experti.
Ako pak uvedu, moracu javno da vas isprozivam i sasvim legitimno dodam titulu "experta".

Deal ?
Vi stalno gledate sta koja drzava radi i uvodi od mera. A zemlju ne cini samo drzava nego i narod. A gomila naroda sirom sveta sve manje zarezuje Koronu.
 
[url=http://beobuild.rs/forum/viewtopic.php?p=865192#p865192:1kwcvohr je napisao(la):
chiko » Sub Jul 17, 2021 6:38 pm[/url]":1kwcvohr]Ok, onda ide deal...

Ako ove zemlje (bez Srbije) ne uvedu mere i prilikom najvecih talasa u NAREDNIH GODINU DANA, evo javno cu priznati da ste experti.
Ako pak uvedu, moracu javno da vas isprozivam i sasvim legitimno dodam titulu "experta".

Deal ?
TI si vec expert, tu nema dileme. Problem je sto se VI experti ne slazete ni u cemu, a mi "experti" uglavnom u svemu :)

Koje mere? Evo ako u narednih godinu dana ne bude nigde zemljotresa javno cu da kazem da sam pogresio da smemo na sunce.

:sesir:
 
Pa upravo su neki nabrojali drzave na koje treba da se ugledamo.
Znaci ako vec hvalis drzavne mere, onda treba ostati dosledan narednih godinu dana.
 
evo ja u sledecih godinu dana necu poostravati nikakve mere, bicu dosledan :)
 
[url=http://beobuild.rs/forum/viewtopic.php?p=865204#p865204:3pb60pvr je napisao(la):
mariks » Sub Jul 17, 2021 7:17 pm[/url]":3pb60pvr]
[url=http://beobuild.rs/forum/viewtopic.php?p=865192#p865192:3pb60pvr je napisao(la):
chiko » Sub Jul 17, 2021 6:38 pm[/url]":3pb60pvr]Ok, onda ide deal...

Ako ove zemlje (bez Srbije) ne uvedu mere i prilikom najvecih talasa u NAREDNIH GODINU DANA, evo javno cu priznati da ste experti.
Ako pak uvedu, moracu javno da vas isprozivam i sasvim legitimno dodam titulu "experta".

Deal ?
TI si vec expert, tu nema dileme. Problem je sto se VI experti ne slazete ni u cemu, a mi "experti" uglavnom u svemu :)

Koje mere? Evo ako u narednih godinu dana ne bude nigde zemljotresa javno cu da kazem da sam pogresio da smemo na sunce.

:sesir:
Mere ogranicavanja "slobode" usled korone, iliti sto neki nazivaju "defetizam", "panika", "kurona rajh".
 
[url=http://beobuild.rs/forum/viewtopic.php?p=865207#p865207:d9huv4q2 je napisao(la):
mariks » Sub Jul 17, 2021 7:18 pm[/url]":d9huv4q2]evo ja u sledecih godinu dana necu poostravati nikakve mere, bicu dosledan :)
Znas kako, neki se drogiraju, neki voze pijani, ali to nema nikakve veze sa zvanicnim drzavim merama.

Pa upravo su neki od vas navodili zvanicne drzavne mere kao primer ispravnog postupanja.
Znaci samo budite dosledni, a ne da birate kako vam se cefne.
 
Cek bre, vi ste navodili drzave na koje se treba ugledati, i sada pricate o licnim merama ???
Don't mix frogs and grandmothers.
Lako je popustati mere kada je epidemijski talas na dnu, i pricati bajke o shveckom modelu.
Ono sto ja pitam sta ce biti sa tim drzavama kada talas dostigne vrhunac, hoce li i onda to biti drzave za primer ?
Treba stati iza svojih reci i biti dosledan.
Ali vi to necete, nego birate vesti sa interneta i drzave kako vama odgovara u tom trenutku.
E pa ne mere tako, ako hocete da promenite status iz "experta" u experta.
 
Znaš kako bitnije je moje opijanje od tvog života. Ja, ja ,ja i samo ja. Moj stil života.
I ako imam neku urođenu otpornost prema koroni ja hoću da putujem i da vam donosim nove sojeve a vi se snalazite.

IMG-e1cb96f77dc007a15e866c459102e02f-V.jpg
 
Nadam se da mislimo na istu stvar kad to čitamo :) Opet demonstracija magijskog mišljenja, gde ljudima nije objašnjeno da neće već sutra nakon prve doze moći u belaj, neuništivi, nego da će tek nakon druge, i to još nekoliko nedelja nakon druge, moći da se opuste. Sindikat je lepo rekao, takvi ljudi i jesu realno opasni, ali opet, to je krivica države upravo što nije radila na edukaciji i ponašanju novovakcinisanih, nego samo zbrzala stvar po običaju.
Nažalost, to je jedino i što je istina u tom dopisu, ostalo su samo neke pseudoracionalizacije zašto ne žele da rade svoj posao kako treba. Neka prime vakcinu i zaklope, ili da ne rade taj posao. Ako nisu vakcinisani, test neka plaćaju, a ako jesu, neka im ga plati država. Pacijenti treba da budu u minimalnom riziku, i da ih se ovo ne tiče.
 
[url=http://beobuild.rs/forum/viewtopic.php?p=865222#p865222:3lkgzoe1 je napisao(la):
chiko » Sub Jul 17, 2021 8:13 pm[/url]":3lkgzoe1]Cek bre, vi ste navodili drzave na koje se treba ugledati, i sada pricate o licnim merama ???
Don't mix frogs and grandmothers.
Lako je popustati mere kada je epidemijski talas na dnu, i pricati bajke o shveckom modelu.
Ono sto ja pitam sta ce biti sa tim drzavama kada talas dostigne vrhunac, hoce li i onda to biti drzave za primer ?
Treba stati iza svojih reci i biti dosledan.
Ali vi to necete, nego birate vesti sa interneta i drzave kako vama odgovara u tom trenutku.
E pa ne mere tako, ako hocete da promenite status iz "experta" u experta.

Na kom dnu kad je u tim drzavama epidemisjki talas na vrhuncu bar sto se tice novog soja? Lako je kazati "e pa ajde da vidimo za godinu dana". Ajde da se kladimo na mesec dana moze? I lepo sa tim pitao koje mere? Lokdaun, policijski cas, zabrana ulaska u zemlju..? Na koje mere mislis?
Da bi ti presao iz "experta". Nama sasvim odgovara status "experta" jer se za razliku od pojedinih ovde na forumu koji propagiraju jedno, a misle i rade drugacije nikada se nismo klasifikovali kao elita i experti :wink: Sta da ti kazem kisa pa ovaj vikend moram kod kuce, nista rostiljanje i opijanje u prirodi da se odmorimo malo svi i posejemo neke dodatne sojeve :)

Pisao sam vec jednom ali je post obrisan pa se nadam da ce ovaj ostati kako bi prestao da podrugljivo nazivas druge sa kojima se ne slazes.

Dakle elita i experti:

Jedni su za vakcinaciju, drugi su protiv vakcinacije, jedni su za zakljucavanje svih, drugi su za slobode samo vakcinisanih, vredjaju neistomisljenike, sire paniku, jedni bi da setaju, drugi da ne vide sunce narednih 20god, jedni bi da zive virtuelno, drugi bi sa maskama ceo zivot...

a "experti":

Svi su vakcinisani ili prelezali, nisu za zakljucavanja, hoce da izlaze napolju uz postovanje odredjenih mera, ne sire paniku, ne vredjaju, hoce da nastave da zive normalno i van virtuelnog sveta...
 
Nego, hoće li opet formalni eksperti, sad kad krene novi talas, da šalju blaže slučajeve na Sajam?

Jesu nas zadužili eksperti...
 
[url=http://beobuild.rs/forum/viewtopic.php?p=865238#p865238:3ciwr3av je napisao(la):
DanMrmota » Sub Jul 17, 2021 8:29 pm[/url]":3ciwr3av]Nadam se da mislimo na istu stvar kad to čitamo :) Opet demonstracija magijskog mišljenja, gde ljudima nije objašnjeno da neće već sutra nakon prve doze moći u belaj, neuništivi, nego da će tek nakon druge, i to još nekoliko nedelja nakon druge, moći da se opuste. Sindikat je lepo rekao, takvi ljudi i jesu realno opasni, ali opet, to je krivica države upravo što nije radila na edukaciji i ponašanju novovakcinisanih, nego samo zbrzala stvar po običaju.
Nažalost, to je jedino i što je istina u tom dopisu, ostalo su samo neke pseudoracionalizacije zašto ne žele da rade svoj posao kako treba. Neka prime vakcinu i zaklope, ili da ne rade taj posao. Ako nisu vakcinisani, test neka plaćaju, a ako jesu, neka im ga plati država. Pacijenti treba da budu u minimalnom riziku, i da ih se ovo ne tiče.
Neće ni druga vakcina puno pomoći da se izbegne korona. Svaka medalja ima dve strane a za drugu je još rano.
Kažeš da traže drugi posao OK i šta misliš koliko će njih ostati ?
I ovi što ostanu vakcinisani tvrdiš da ne prenose virus ? Realnost je malo drugačija.


https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/for-f ... ael-674084

PM Bennett: Vaccine ‘significantly less’ effective against the Delta variant

The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling.
“We do not know exactly to what degree the vaccine helps, but it is significantly less,” Bennett said.
The prime minister held a meeting of top health officials and ministers to discuss the next steps for managing the virus in light of the numbers in Israel and what Bennett described as “the Delta mutation leaping forward around the world, including in vaccinated countries such as Britain, Israel and the US.”
He said that in “Britain, in recent days, we have seen a jump in the number of children who are being hospitalized on a daily basis. This is a development that we are aware of; we are dealing with it rationally and responsibly.”

More than 5.7 million Israelis have received at least one shot of the Pfizer vaccine and the country continues to push for citizens – especially teenagers – to go out and get the jab.
The highest number of coronavirus cases in nearly four months was diagnosed on Friday - some 1,118 people, according to the Health Ministry's Saturday night report. Of those screened, some 1.58% tested positive. The reproduction rate (R), the number of people a sick person infects, stood at 1.37.

Among those who tested positive was an adviser to Religious Affairs Minister Matan Kahana. He and his advisor had not been together since July 12, so he was told he did not need to enter isolation. Nonetheless, the minister and his staff were asked to take a coronavirus test.
While the spike in daily cases continues, the increase in serious morbidity has risen in a more limited way. Of those infected, 58 were in serious condition, according to the ministry - an increase of six people over the weekend.
In April, with around 6,500 active cases like now, there were 370 patients in serious conditions.




The effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is “weaker” than health officials hoped, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said Friday, as over 1,000 people tested positive for coronavirus and more countries were added to the list of places to which Israelis will be banned from traveling.
“We do not know exactly to what degree the vaccine helps, but it is significantly less,” Bennett said.
Advertisement

The prime minister held a meeting of top health officials and ministers to discuss the next steps for managing the virus in light of the numbers in Israel and what Bennett described as “the Delta mutation leaping forward around the world, including in vaccinated countries such as Britain, Israel and the US.”
He said that in “Britain, in recent days, we have seen a jump in the number of children who are being hospitalized on a daily basis. This is a development that we are aware of; we are dealing with it rationally and responsibly.”


More than 5.7 million Israelis have received at least one shot of the Pfizer vaccine and the country continues to push for citizens – especially teenagers – to go out and get the jab.
The highest number of coronavirus cases in nearly four months was diagnosed on Friday - some 1,118 people, according to the Health Ministry's Saturday night report. Of those screened, some 1.58% tested positive. The reproduction rate (R), the number of people a sick person infects, stood at 1.37.


Among those who tested positive was an adviser to Religious Affairs Minister Matan Kahana. He and his advisor had not been together since July 12, so he was told he did not need to enter isolation. Nonetheless, the minister and his staff were asked to take a coronavirus test.
While the spike in daily cases continues, the increase in serious morbidity has risen in a more limited way. Of those infected, 58 were in serious condition, according to the ministry - an increase of six people over the weekend.
In April, with around 6,500 active cases like now, there were 370 patients in serious conditions.
The likely explanation is that among the current virus carriers, some 2,000 are schoolchildren, and half of them were fully vaccinated. Both groups are very unlikely to develop severe forms of the disease, even though it occasionally happens. At the moment, around 60% of the patients in serious conditions were vaccinated.
"Percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the 3rd wave when there were no vaccines," Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday.
He said that "in case of continued increase in cases, many more cases will be needed than in the 3rd wave to reach similarly high numbers of critically ill patients in the hospitals. This will contribute significantly to population-level immunity."




The prime minister held a meeting of top health officials and ministers to discuss the next steps for managing the virus in light of the numbers in Israel and what Bennett described as “the Delta mutation leaping forward around the world, including in vaccinated countries such as Britain, Israel and the US.”
He said that in “Britain, in recent days, we have seen a jump in the number of children who are being hospitalized on a daily basis. This is a development that we are aware of; we are dealing with it rationally and responsibly.”


healths.vip
More than 5.7 million Israelis have received at least one shot of the Pfizer vaccine and the country continues to push for citizens – especially teenagers – to go out and get the jab.
The highest number of coronavirus cases in nearly four months was diagnosed on Friday - some 1,118 people, according to the Health Ministry's Saturday night report. Of those screened, some 1.58% tested positive. The reproduction rate (R), the number of people a sick person infects, stood at 1.37.

Among those who tested positive was an adviser to Religious Affairs Minister Matan Kahana. He and his advisor had not been together since July 12, so he was told he did not need to enter isolation. Nonetheless, the minister and his staff were asked to take a coronavirus test.
While the spike in daily cases continues, the increase in serious morbidity has risen in a more limited way. Of those infected, 58 were in serious condition, according to the ministry - an increase of six people over the weekend.
In April, with around 6,500 active cases like now, there were 370 patients in serious conditions.
The likely explanation is that among the current virus carriers, some 2,000 are schoolchildren, and half of them were fully vaccinated. Both groups are very unlikely to develop severe forms of the disease, even though it occasionally happens. At the moment, around 60% of the patients in serious conditions were vaccinated.
"Percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the 3rd wave when there were no vaccines," Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday.
He said that "in case of continued increase in cases, many more cases will be needed than in the 3rd wave to reach similarly high numbers of critically ill patients in the hospitals. This will contribute significantly to population-level immunity."

The ministers met for several hours on Friday, only completing their meeting shortly before Shabbat, and agreed on several principles, the first of which was to ensure that Israel maintains a continuous inventory of vaccines and that vaccination efforts are stepped up.
According to Segal, only around 4,000 people were vaccinated last week - not enough to help move Israel back toward herd immunity.
The government also said it would evaluate the need for a third shot of the vaccine, at least for the elderly.
Next, the ministers said they would put an emphasis on rolling out rapid home testing as early as next week. Bennett said he wants to see these and other rapid tests accessible to everyone to enable life to go on during the pandemic.
FURTHERMORE, the ministers agreed to prepare for enforcing the "Happy Badge" that gives access to weddings and similar events with more than 100 guests only to those who are vaccinated, recovered or holders of a recent negative coronavirus test.
The system applies to indoor gatherings where food and drinks are served and people mingle or stand, such as dancing at weddings or concerts. There will be no cap on participants, but people will be required to wear masks.
Establishments that do not follow the rules will be subject to an NIS 5,000 fine.
Several top health officials are pushing for the government to bring back the Green Pass within the next two weeks for all gatherings over 100 people, including at restaurants. The coronavirus cabinet is expected to discuss the idea this week and insiders have said they are likely to accept it.
Already on Sunday, a team of 1,600 municipal inspectors will be charged with ensuring the public is wearing masks, mostly in malls and larger grocery stores. The fine for not wearing a mask in closed public spaces is NIS 500.
Further from the meeting, a joint team run by the Health and Transportation ministries will examine the policies at Ben-Gurion Airport. And the relevant authorities will begin preparations for the High Holidays and the opening of the school year in the shadow of coronavirus.
Finally, the ministers also agreed that all of the staff hired by the hospitals to help during the coronavirus crisis would remain employed until the passing of a state budget. This includes some 600 doctors and 1,600 nurses.
Last week, thousands of administrative and other support staff from 30 medical centers across the country were on strike over some 200 positions that were likewise hired during the pandemic.
The strike ended on Thursday and all of the employees agreed to go back to work after a deal was brokered between Health Minister Nitzan Horowitz and the Histadrut Labor Union, which similarly said that until the state budget is formulated, all employees that were hired during the COVID-19 pandemic would remain in their jobs.
The doctors, nurses and support staff who were hired to help the hospitals during the crisis were supposed to lose their jobs at the end of the month.
In addition, it was agreed on Thursday that Histadrut chairman Arnon Bar-David would discuss a wage increase for these workers with the Finance Ministry.
THE MEETING came shortly after the Health Ministry announced its intention to add Spain and Kyrgyzstan to the list of banned countries, and Britain, Cyprus, Turkey, Georgia, Uganda, Myanmar, Fiji, Panama, Cambodia, Kenya and Liberia to the list of red countries beginning Friday, July 23 – meaning that if Israelis travel to these places, they will have to be isolated on return for seven to 14 days.

Other countries for which there is already a severe travel warning include the United Arab Emirates, Seychelles, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Bolivia, Guatemala, Honduras, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Namibia, Paraguay, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica and Tunisia.
Other countries are also expected to be added soon, including Thailand, Greece and Holland, according to reports by Israeli media.
The list of banned countries includes Argentina, Brazil, India, Mexico, Russia and Belarus. Israelis are prohibited from visiting these countries unless they obtain permission from a special governmental exceptions committee.
The government is expected to approve the new list of countries this week.
“The government will continue to monitor all developments and convene frequently to discuss them and plan the next steps in advance so that the public will understand where we are going and what we are doing, without the mishaps, without panic and, mainly – with advance planning – anticipate the future,” Bennett concluded.


IMG-d305a92b3f1cfa866a15fb29bc2e122c-V.jpg
 
Ne znam šta se desilo sa copy/paste, ali je tekst jako repetitivan, preporučujem svima da pročitaju na linku. Ono što sam uhvatio je ovaj deo
"Percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the 3rd wave when there were no vaccines," Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday.
He said that "in case of continued increase in cases, many more cases will be needed than in the 3rd wave to reach similarly high numbers of critically ill patients in the hospitals. This will contribute significantly to population-level immunity."

Iako nije snažna kao ranije, to je i dalje 60% smanjenje kritičnih slučajeva. A ako primenjujete dodatne mere zaštite, procenat je sa svakim korakom sve manji i manji.

Maske smanjuju 90-95%, smanjenje kontakata neki procenat x%, vakcina neka bude čak i 60%, i svaki kontakt neka ima rizik y%. Šansa da se zarazite, vakcinisani, sa maskom, primera radi na kasi u supermarketu, je tad 0.05 x (1-x%) x 0.4 x y%, jer svaki korak mora da fejluje. Naravno, ako ste bez maske sa zaraženom osobom, jedino vas vakcina štiti, pa je svaka verovatnoća veća od 50% bolja nego ništa, ali to je samo moje mišljenje od 2 dinara.

While the spike in daily cases continues, the increase in serious morbidity has risen in a more limited way. Of those infected, some 58 were in serious condition, according to the ministry – an increase of six people over the weekend.
In April, with around 6,500 active cases like now, there were 370 patients in serious conditions.

Meni ovo nije antireklama za vakcine, naprotiv.

[url=http://beobuild.rs/forum/viewtopic.php?p=865247#p865247:33x44r5q je napisao(la):
Žika » Sub Jul 17, 2021 10:03 pm[/url]":33x44r5q]
Kažeš da traže drugi posao OK i šta misliš koliko će njih ostati ?

Što se ovoga tiče, radije bih da me leče doktori koji nisu potpuno izgubili razum, a ne osobe poput Nestorovića, ili ne daj Bože, Jovane Stojković. Licence su trebale da im budu spaljene, ima, evo, bar jedna cela godina... Kvalitet a ne kvantitet! Da oni ne zauzimaju te poslove kojih se grčevito drže, možda bismo imali neke mlade i bolje lekare umesto izlapelih oportunista, pa ne bi morali ni da beže u Nemačku tako nezaustavljivo. Ali šta da se radi, to je na Komisijama da se bave...
 
Švajcarski sir - Model slojevite odbrane od respiratornih virusa

Ni jedan sloj odbrane nije dovoljan sam za sebe jer je svaki pun rupa, isto kao i sir. Zaista su efikasni tek svi individualni i kolektivni slojevi zajedno.

The-Swiss-Cheese-Respiratory-Virus-Pandemic-Defence.jpg

The Swiss cheese respiratory virus pandemic defence
 
[url=http://beobuild.rs/forum/viewtopic.php?p=865274#p865274:36axh8ox je napisao(la):
DanMrmota » Sub Jul 17, 2021 10:42 pm[/url]":36axh8ox]Ne znam šta se desilo sa copy/paste, ali je tekst jako repetitivan, preporučujem svima da pročitaju na linku. Ono što sam uhvatio je ovaj deo
"Percent of cases that turn critically ill is now 1.6%, compared to 4% at a similar stage in the 3rd wave when there were no vaccines," Prof. Eran Segal, a computational biologist at the Weizmann Institute of Science who advises the coronavirus cabinet, tweeted on Friday.
He said that "in case of continued increase in cases, many more cases will be needed than in the 3rd wave to reach similarly high numbers of critically ill patients in the hospitals. This will contribute significantly to population-level immunity."

Iako nije snažna kao ranije, to je i dalje 60% smanjenje kritičnih slučajeva. A ako primenjujete dodatne mere zaštite, procenat je sa svakim korakom sve manji i manji.

Maske smanjuju 90-95%, smanjenje kontakata neki procenat x%, vakcina neka bude čak i 60%, i svaki kontakt neka ima rizik y%. Šansa da se zarazite, vakcinisani, sa maskom, primera radi na kasi u supermarketu, je tad 0.05 x (1-x%) x 0.4 x y%, jer svaki korak mora da fejluje. Naravno, ako ste bez maske sa zaraženom osobom, jedino vas vakcina štiti, pa je svaka verovatnoća veća od 50% bolja nego ništa, ali to je samo moje mišljenje od 2 dinara.

While the spike in daily cases continues, the increase in serious morbidity has risen in a more limited way. Of those infected, some 58 were in serious condition, according to the ministry – an increase of six people over the weekend.
In April, with around 6,500 active cases like now, there were 370 patients in serious conditions.

Meni ovo nije antireklama za vakcine, naprotiv.

[url=http://beobuild.rs/forum/viewtopic.php?p=865247#p865247:36axh8ox je napisao(la):
Žika » Sub Jul 17, 2021 10:03 pm[/url]":36axh8ox]
Kažeš da traže drugi posao OK i šta misliš koliko će njih ostati ?

Što se ovoga tiče, radije bih da me leče doktori koji nisu potpuno izgubili razum, a ne osobe poput Nestorovića, ili ne daj Bože, Jovane Stojković. Licence su trebale da im budu spaljene, ima, evo, bar jedna cela godina... Kvalitet a ne kvantitet! Da oni ne zauzimaju te poslove kojih se grčevito drže, možda bismo imali neke mlade i bolje lekare umesto izlapelih oportunista, pa ne bi morali ni da beže u Nemačku tako nezaustavljivo. Ali šta da se radi, to je na Komisijama da se bave...

Mladi lekari, kao onaj što je doneo iz Austrije pa zarazio veći broj kolega na klinici i uključujući i pacijente. Što brine o sterilnim uslovima kao prodavci na pijaci. Ili one mlade generacije koje usred naleta korone protestuju i duvaju u pištaljke.
Što se tiče studenata na medicinskim fakultetima među njima vlada veliko nepoverenje u vakcine. Veće nego među lekarima.

Evo jedna anonimna anketa koja je rađena u stručnoj grupi vezanoj za koronu. Grupa ima preko 1000 članova.


IMG-f1555935a8327e0a8bc01b8a175a68fc-V.jpg


Nije baš kako se predstavlja.
 
Ponovo vidim da je 6/7 vakcinisano protiv korone, čime sam više nego zadovoljan :)
 
[url=http://beobuild.rs/forum/viewtopic.php?p=865315#p865315:24srsxhn je napisao(la):
Žika » Ned Jul 18, 2021 2:00 am[/url]":24srsxhn]A ostalih 920 ? Ne bi bio baš zadovoljan !

Uzeo sam naivnu pretpostavku da je ovo reprezentativan uzorak među tih 1000. Nisam znao da podrazumevamo da ostali nisu vakcinisani.
Da sam u Viber grupi sa hiljadu članova, ne bih ulazio nikad :lol: Takav čet se kreće bar 10 puta brže nego ovaj forum, nema šanse bilo šta da se isprati. Slično je bilo i u studentskim grupama gde sam bio.
Ovaj forum ima 10 hiljada članova, od kojih je samo 200-inak popunilo ovu anketu. Da li to znači da ostalih 9800 nije vakcinisano?
 
Vrh