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Finansijska tržišta (trgovina akcijama, obveznicama i dr. instrumentima)

Тужно али истинито. Храна је безобразно поскупела.
 
Jeste hrana poskupela, ali definitivno nismo poceli da jedemo manje vec da kupujemo robu manje vrednosti.
 
FyItYKSWAAciSG7.jpg


listen to the PAIN
 
lol

pauziranje za jun, ali se očekuje dizanje na +550 bps do kraja god...lmaoooo...vix negative soon...

bear je počeo nov/dec 2021...možemo reći da je tek početak...

price is always right, timing is everything !

puts su sje*******ani skroz... ovi poslednji na izdisaju, držim... ide sve dok svi ne budemo ubeđeni da je novi bull market...a onda ide rugging za fomo idiote...

kačio sam prošle godine BMR iz prethodnih bear marketa, tako da...pa, ništa, jbg.

u svakom slučaju evo par citata iz Bear market investing strategies od Harry D. Shultza
When a secondary goes beyond 66%, virtually everyone throws in the
sponge, claiming loudly that the secondary is now a bull market. But history
shows otherwise. A secondary can be as little as 10% and as much as 99.9%.

As Robert Rhea defined it:
‘‘If we could say that the great majority of secondaries terminated
around the 50% recovery point, speculation would be easy.
Unfortunately, careful analysis shows that 7% of all reactions
terminate after retracing 40–55%, 27% after retracing 55 to 70%, 8%
after retracing 70 to 85%, with 14% of all secondary movements
extending beyond 85% retracement.’’
Those percentages have probably not changed much in the 70 years since Rhea
observed this.
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I deo
ACTION IN THE ADVANCED OR MIDDLE STAGE OF A BEAR MARKET

If such a secondary reaction is already under way, you have several choices:

1. Sell in stages what you hold long, using your technical tools to gauge the top of the up-move. This you must do if you rate capital preservation high. The top of a secondary reaction (up) in most bear markets offers the highest prices that will be seen for probably 1 to 5 years. This is because the bear market ‘‘assumedly’’ has time left to run, after which it will normally remain dormant awhile, then slowly build up to a new bull market, all of which takes time. The prices on this reaction will be the best you can hope for, even though they may look pitifully low to you, since they had been so much higher 6–12 months before. Even the long-term investor must get out here. We are not dealing with certainties in the stock market (or in any other phase of life) but with probabilities, and you can’t afford the risk of going against the probabilities here. The odds favor lower prices are long. And for a long time.This ‘‘choice’’ sounds easy on paper, but in practice it’s agonizingly difficult.Why? Because, as the rally mounts, the talk will be that the bear market is over, or that we are starting a new bull market, or that maybe it wasn’t really a bearmarket anyway. Some will say the DJIA is going 500 points higher in the next92 Bear Market Investing Strategies30 days. Volume will probably mount. Some good business news will beavailable. Most brokers will be bullish and urge customers to buy. You willbe torn between the stage scenery (those 500 points especially) and what youare pretty sure is backstage.But experience teaches that those extra 500 points are a mirage most of thetime. If you like only short odds in your favor, then stick around. Maybe you’llbe lucky.‘‘Each man must kill his own snakes,’’ as Robert Rhea once said of stockmarket decisions. This book can tell you where the snakes are, but you have totake the action yourself, and it’s never, never easy. Only on paper is it easy.Partly, that’s because we live only 1 day at a time, whereas on paper we canspan 6 months in a paragraph.In this situation, we again face what we discussed in the chapter on humanpsychology in the stock market. Winning in the market is largely a matter offighting a battle within yourself. Intellectual domination of your emotions willwin the day, if it is indeed won. The majority will fail to win the day, for themajority cannot, or will not, try to control their emotions. So, this simplechoice of ‘‘selling on the rally’’ will prove a massive barrier to you unlessyou develop nerves of steel and act against what some of your emotions arecoaxing you to do.You must ignore both profits and losses, and forsake what appear to beprobable profits ahead, and sell when the signs say so.The most difficult part of all is not to let your bullish emotions, in a rally,cause you to make rose-colored interpretations of an indicator. For example, ifthe number of daily ‘‘new highs’’ fails to exceed the ‘‘new lows’’ (or does soonly moderately) during a rally, you will be tempted to discount it (becausesubconsciously you want to hide such evidence under the rug). You may say,‘‘Well, you’ve got to expect the highs to be fewer because the market is welldown from its peak.’’ So much for this ‘‘simple’’ choice number one.

2. Buy a few stocks that look bullish on their charts (see Chapter 11 oncharts), as perhaps 10 to 25% of total stocks may, if it is not too faralong in the intermediate term, up-move (i.e., the secondary reaction ina bear market). Thus, you’ll get a nice play for several points profit,assuming you have done your chart reading properly. You should pickstocks that have little apparent downside risk and good support levels:stocks that are in a new uptrend and enjoy increased volume, andperhaps have something fundamentally bright.Sometimes, the blue chips are best on secondary rallies; sometimes, the lowprice stocks; sometimes, the cyclicals or the utilities. No two situations can bethe same, and that’s why I advocate making your selection on the basis of chartaction. The charts tell you which group is strongest and/or which are makingreversal patterns. It will usually be a ‘‘logical’’ group to advance, based onPreservation of Capital during a Bear Market 93TEAMFLYconditions at that stage of the economy or market. Watch the volume leadersfor candidates.That may not seem appropriate for preservation of capital, but in truth it is,provided you do not invest too heavily in this stage. It’s like Napoleon’s advicethat to attack is the best defense. One must go with the trend, even the short ormedium-term trend at times. Probably 25 to 30% should be your maximumcommitment in this period. There is always the risk that you have not madecorrect interpretations of the signs of the times and the technical tools, andwhat you calculate to be an intermediate-term rally may in fact be a primaryreversal; thus, some investment in it will be welcome.If, for the ‘‘buy and hold’’ crowd, this sounds like peculiar advice, let mequote part of friend John Templeton’s strategy that created his huge fortune.Even at the height of the 1990s’ bull market, he never mentally, or emotionally,put all his money in stocks. His ‘‘buy and hold’’ portion of his portfolio wasonly ever 50%. The other 50% was sometimes in bonds or defensive issues, ifhe felt doubtful about the trend. That’s a good strategy to adopt.But, because Templeton is a multi-millionaire, he could afford to risk ahigher percentage of his assets than most people.However, in good conscience, the best advice for ultra-conservative preservation of capital is to participate in these contra-trend moves in closed-endmutual funds.Holding this type of share lets you sleep better, doesn’t make you quite sucha devotee to your charts, and doesn’t subject you to the whims of news and thehype that most TV newscasters use to keep you watching and their sponsorshappy. You don’t make nearly as much profit this way, but, on a normalintermediate secondary reaction (up), you should make enough points tomake it worthwhile. If you are also short, this hedges your position nicely.Even this method, however, is not perfect. At times, some closed-end mutualfunds tend to specialize in specific industries and would be the equivalent ofbuying into just one industry group. So, if you like this fund idea, make sureyou know exactly what they are invested in and how diversified they are.To hold something both long and short is a common practice with manysophisticated investors. If you feel you know charts well enough to pick thestrong stocks to hold long and the weak ones to hold short, this is a reasonableapproach as you are balanced and invested with individual stock trends.Whether you buy a mutual fund or a stock is obviously an individual choice,based on how much risk you want to absorb and how far you have progressedin your study of market trends and chart analysis. You pay your money andyou take your chance.
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II deo

3. Sell short at the top (you hope) of the rally (secondary reaction).Although this possibility is the most profitable of the lot, it’s againstyour nature and the one you’re least likely to want to do (see Chapter 1394 Bear Market Investing Strategieson short-selling techniques). Not only is it difficult psychologically formost people to sell short, but it’s made doubly difficult by the fact that itshould be done when prices are still inching up—or just beginning toslip a bit; whereas the odd lotter/amateur will only have the courage tosell short when the specter of a crash triggers his mental ‘‘fear’’ screen,which is usually when the down leg is almost over.Selling short as soon as prices start to dip is much safer, for you can restassured by all stock market history that even bull market up phases havereactions. The big bonus is that shorting near what appears a rally topenables you to place a logical stop-loss order very near your short-sell priceat above the rally peak. The longer you wait, the bigger that gap. So, a short ina bear market is more likely to make a profit and with less risk placed at thisimmediate post-rally stage, than after prices have been falling for some days.But even shorting late in the game is not fatal because, if you are in a bearmarket, prices must eventually go lower, even if there is another rally soonafter you sell short. You can in theory wait it out, just as you do in bull marketswhen you buy a stock, and then the stock turns down. You then wait for themarket to come back and make you well. But, success in this case depends onhow much heat you can stand. A stop is necessary in either case.I’ll discuss stop-loss orders again in the short-selling chapter (Chapter 13),but let me say that stops give you peace of mind, especially when you are newat shorting. Later on, you may use them or not as you prefer, depending onhow close you are to the market.

4. Selling out and staying out is the fourth course of action. This choice isone rarely practiced; yet, it contains wisdom for some people. But, then,that’s the hallmark of wisdom, something not widely known or, ifknown, not widely practiced. When you find a rally (secondary reaction type) about to start or already under way in a bear marketand you have sold out (as per choice 1 above), then you need not followchoices 2 or 3, but take this opt-out choice instead. You need not eithergo long to make a few points or short on the rally high, since bothinvolve some risk and both require much attention to indicators. Youcan simply play it safe by selling out and then staying out, putting your money in Treasury bonds or other defensive fixed-interest paper. Or, inthe case of an inflationary bear market, in ‘‘tangible investments’’—gold, real estate, art, etc.The act of staying out is just as much a positive action as buying or selling, and,in fact, requires more courage at times. Robert Rhea, in 1937’s bear market,wrote: ‘‘A bear market is a good time for a vacation, and I am taking one.’’Or, another way to put it: ‘‘Often, riding at anchor is the best course.’’ Thischoice depends on your self-analysis. Are you temperamentally suited top preservation of Capital during a Bear Market 95shorting? Can you apply yourself to indicators, tools, charts? Will you beunhappy out of the market—doing nothing as you watch the action? Youalone can answer these questions. You may not know the answer till you study more, or paper trade, or try your hand with bear market strategies.

5. Never go against the trend. We can call this choice 5 or give it a subheading under choice 3. (It’s not important how you categorize them, just so you incorporate them into your thinking.) This calls fornever going against the trend. It means that you go short only until yousee a secondary (up) reaction at hand. Then, you cover your shorts and stay out until the turndown starts again. Then, you short again. Youkeep shorting and covering, shorting and covering. Never going long,only short. Thus, you never buck the ‘‘major’’ trend. And you are neverin the market during major rallies, which, it must be admitted, are trickyaffairs in bear markets, and thus you avoid the risk of being‘‘whipsawed.’’
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Ti o tom bearu 3 godine, a sve nominalne varijable se duplirale. :)
SP skoro +20% za par meseci.

Da se razumemo, mi živimo realnu recesiju upravo i biće još gora, samo se ona ne odvija na način kao 2008. nego približnije kao 90-ih u SRJ, ne tako drastično naravno. Nisam mesecima ulazio u pekaru, pre neki dan sam platio 3 bureka sa 3 čaše jogurta 890 din. 😲

Ekonomiju i sve nominalne varijable održavaju cene, ne količina.
 
Cetvrt bureka je bila prosle godine 150, pa 160, pa 180 i danas 190 din.
 
Ljuba82 je napisao(la):
Ti o tom bearu 3 godine, a sve nominalne varijable se duplirale. :)
SP skoro +20% za par meseci.

Da se razumemo, mi živimo realnu recesiju upravo i biće još gora, samo se ona ne odvija na način kao 2008. nego približnije kao 90-ih u SRJ, ne tako drastično naravno. Nisam mesecima ulazio u pekaru, pre neki dan sam platio 3 bureka sa 3 čaše jogurta 890 din. 😲

Ekonomiju i sve nominalne varijable održavaju cene, ne količina.
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ne, od decembra 2021 sam u bearu, tacnije, poceo sam trejdom od jan/feb 2022...
nije neobično da bear traje puno godina, npr. od 1937-1941, taj je brutalan

stage 3 je neizbežan, stage 2 je napravljen da te lomi da ne uhvatiš limit down sell... piše gore dovoljno.

nije isto govoriti o marketu i eknomiji, mada se mnoge stvari preklapaju
 
Međunarodni monetarni fond (MMF) je nagovestio da bi mogao prihvatiti kineski juan kao valutu za zemlje da izmire svoje obaveze sa MMF-om nakon nedavne otplate duga Argentine u juanima.

nisam verovao u dedolarizaciju, ali izgleda je to ozbiljna stvar
 
mega giga chad BMR, aka new generational bull run lol...

klasika... samelji shorts do kraja...tako je kako je.
 
ma očekivao crveni ponedeljak za spy ticker, loša predikcija 🙋‍♂️
 
Откуд у Бугарској и Румунији није завладало благостање и економски просперитет након уласка у НАТО?
 
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