Analiza trenutne situacije, Brian Berletic, former US Marine.
U gorenjem video Brian Berletic pokazuje izuzetan dokument u kome je još 2009. godine jedan od ogromnog mnoštva Američkih političkih instituta detaljno razradio strategiju protiv Irana. Studija je zanimljiva jer je u njoj bukvalno opisano ono što se sada događa na Bliskom istoku, tj recept kako postupati sa Iranom ali tako da izgleda da to radi Izrael, a ne Amerika. Iskopirao sam delove o kojima on priča u videu. Pročitajte samo to pa ćete videti da je to bukvalno recept po kome Amerika sada postupa.
The Saban Center at The Brookings Institution for Middle East Policy
A N A L Y S I S - P A P E R
Number 20, June 2009
WHICH PATH TO PERSIA?
Options for a New American Strategy toward Iran
chapter 5
Leave it to BiBi (Benjamin Netanyahu)
Allowing or encouraging an Israeli Military strike
Goal
As in the case of american airstrikes against iran, the goal of this policy option would be to destroy key iranian nuclear facilities in the hope that doing so would significantly delay iran’s acquisition of an indigenous nuclear weapons capability. however, in this case,
an added element could be that the United states would encourage—and perhaps even assist—the israelis in conducting the strikes themselves, in the expectation that both international criticism and iranian retaliation would be deflected away from the United states and onto israel. The logic behind this approach is that allowing israel to mount the airstrikes, rather than the United states, provides a way out of the dilemma described in the previous chapter, whereby american airstrikes against iran could become self-defeating because they would undermine every other american initiative in the Middle east, an outcome exactly the opposite of what a new iran policy is meant to accomplish.
Chapter 1
An Offer Iran Shouldn’t Refuse
Persuasion
Pros and Cons
For those who favor regime change or a military attack on Iran (either by the United States or Israel), there is a strong argument to be made for trying this option first. Inciting regime change in Iran would be greatly assisted by convincing the Iranian people that their government is so ideologically blinkered that it refuses to do what is best for the people and instead clings to a policy that could only bring ruin on the country.
The ideal scenario in this case would be that the United States and the international community present a package of positive inducements so enticing that the Iranian citizenry would support the deal, only to have the regime reject it. In a similar vein, any military operation against Iran will likely be very unpopular around the world and require the proper international context— both to ensure the logistical support the operation would require and to minimize the blowback from it.
The best way to minimize international opprobrium and maximize support (however, grudging or covert) is to strike only when there is a widespread conviction that the Iranians were given but then rejected a superb offer—one so good that only a regime determined to acquire nuclear weapons and acquire them for the wrong reasons would turn it down. Under those circumstances, the United States (or Israel)
could portray its operations as taken in sorrow, not anger, and at least some in the international community would conclude that the Iranians “brought it on themselves” by refusing a very good deal.
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